A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
